Belarusian Generation Y logbook

It feels that in the past year the question that bothered Belarusians the most was “Is this the time for me to pack and leave?” We have just put behind the year 2011. But that year, being one of the most difficult the current generation can remember, raised a lot of questions to people of different walks of life.

The political and economic turmoil of 2011 made many people think that it is time to leave their naive ideals behind and move on (or away). Those commonly known as “silent majority” stumbled face to face with economic hardship and considered going somewhere with a less volatile exchange rate. This urge to leave cannot surprise anyone, it has its rational reason behind it. What I find more interesting is the fact that the thought of migrating became real to a lot of people who have always been politically and socially active, and insisted that leaving the country is somehow irresponsible and selfish, people who believed that as long as you don’t betray your ideals and values and work for the change of the authoritarian status quo there is no reason to leave. In a way, this type of thinking can be condensed to: Why should I leave when I know that I can make a change here and be happy in Belarus?

Since the election rally on December 19th, 2010, there were: arrests, home and office searches, bomb explosion at a metro station, mock trials against dozens of political activists, economic turmoil with inflation crossing 100%, a severe currency devaluation, petrol price increasing every couple of weeks, silent protests where people were arrested simply for daring to clap hands, car protests, increasing the rights of police and security structures by basically turning the country into one big prison. Who would not get depressed and think that there must be a better place where one can simply live and do their jobs and be happy?

There has been a lot of discussions around immigration online too. People wrote that they are thinking of it or that they or someone they know had already done it. I think some of the online debaters just wanted to see if the public would approve their decision. It is not that easy to just pack and leave when in a sense it means accepting the defeat of their previous beliefs.

The issue of immigration has been raised again after the Indepent Institute of Socio-economic and Political Studies published their report on “Labor Market and Labor Relations for Women and Young People in Belarus”. The research does not show a pretty picture. It seems that Belarusian Generation Y in its majority does not want to stay in Belarus. More than two thirds of young people between 18 and 24 years old want to move to a different country. For good. 68,6% of young people in the age group 18-19 y.o. and 69,7% of young people between 20 and 24 y.o. want to move permanently abroad. The Institute concludes that the youth are the part of the population who are most interested in immigrating. However, 55,3% of the surveyed people said that they are not planning to pack their bags just yet. Moreover, the desire to leave seems to get weaker with age. Approximately until 39 y.o. the majority of the survey participants thought positively of immigration. Then the trend seems to break. The desire to move to Russia specifically goes up, however, when the total amount of ready-to-immigrate starts to drop.

Sociologists explain the massive desire to immigrate by worsened economic conditions, growing unemployment and typical illnesses of a matured authoritarianism: week career prospects and general stagnation. Although there are people who are ready to leave only due to political reasons – in case of Belarus merging into Russia.

Aleh Manaeu, doctor of sociology and the head of the institute, says:

The current situation resembles the period between the 70s and the 80s, so called “blooming stagnation” of Brezhnev in the USSR. Social lifting and the chances for the young people to go up the social ladder, become influential in business, culture and politics have become more complicated than it was 15-20 years ago.

According to the sociologist, it is common that around 60% of young people confess the wish to immigrate, but this year the numbers have almost reached 70%.

Most attractive destination for Belarusian wanna-be-immigrants seem to be the USA and Germany. The former is especially popular among the youngest (as well as Poland), and the latter attracts a bit more mature – around a quarter of the surveyed people between 25 and 30 want to move there. Russia is interesting to around 10% of people between 20 and 24, as well as people older than 40. The Baltic states don’t seem to be attractive at all regardless the age of the survey participants.

The current amount of wanna-be-migrants is the highest since 2004. Back then the referendum allowed Lukashenka to run for president as much as he wants. The survey in 2004 also showed that around 70% of people under 25 wanted to move. In 2009 on the other hand only 40% were in favor of immigration. Still among CIS countries Belarus remained at the top of the countries with high percentage of people who wanted to immigrate, being behind only Moldova and Armenia.

Despite what the survey says and what moral implications there may be when taking such a decision, everyone decides for themselves. And it seems that leaving the country is not the worst thing that may happen. Worse would be to stay and conform with the passive mass ruled by a dictator. It does not matter where one is geographically as long as they don’t betray their principles and values.